Designing a Model of Strategic Resilience: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the 12-Day War

Purpose:
This study develops an operational and empirically grounded model of strategic resilience for the Islamic Republic of Iran in the context of a short-term, high-intensity military crisis. Focusing on the 12-day war, it examines how resilience was constructed and exercised at the nation-state level and seeks to clarify whether resilience functioned merely as a capacity for endurance or as a proactive, leadership-driven strategic capability.

Design/Methodology/Approach:
The research adopts a qualitative approach based on Thematic Analysis. A total of 37 official statements and documents issued by senior political, military, and cultural-social actors during the crisis were systematically analyzed. Using an inductive, multi-stage coding process—including open coding, thematic categorization, and synthesis—382 semantic units were identified and organized into 17 basic themes, 6 organizing themes, and 3 overarching dimensions of strategic resilience.

Findings:
The analysis reveals that strategic resilience in this case is neither static nor reactive, but dynamic, hierarchical, and centered on strategic agency. The resulting model comprises three interrelated dimensions: Socio-Political Resilience (25.9%), which provides the enabling foundation through integrated leadership, unity of command, and national cohesion; Resilience in Strategic Agency (54.7%), identified as the core dimension, highlighting active deterrence, demonstration of response capability, strategic justification, and narrative management through public diplomacy; and Resilience in Foundational Dimensions (19.4%), which supports resilience through continuity of critical governmental and economic functions, support for affected populations, and the mobilization of semantic and psychological capital. Overall, resilience emerges as a capability activated by a central strategic actor that aligns leadership, hard power, soft power, and social capital into a coherent crisis response.

Practical Implications:
The findings suggest that effective national resilience in military crises depends on leadership-centered coordination, credible deterrence signaling, narrative control, and the maintenance of public trust and service continuity.

Originality/Value:
By deriving a strategic resilience model directly from real-time crisis discourse, this study offers a context-sensitive and empirically grounded contribution to resilience research, advancing analysis beyond abstract frameworks and organization-level perspectives.Keywords: Strategic Resilience, National Security, Strategic Leadership, Military Crisis Management, Strategic Agency, Discourse Analysis, Deterrence.